India Explained
ImplementedBJPNarendra Modi

COVID-19 national lockdown (March 2020)

Nationwide lockdown under the Disaster Management Act from 25 March 2020. The Government said it slowed spread and bought time; the Supreme Court addressed migrant workers' hardship and GDP fell sharply in 2020-21.

Pandemic response

Facts

  • A national lockdown was declared on 25 March 2020 under the Disaster Management Act, 2005; the Solicitor General told the Supreme Court that the first priority was to contain the spread and ensure no movement of people, including migrant workers [1].
  • On 29 April 2020 the Ministry of Home Affairs allowed movement of stranded migrant workers; Shramik special trains began on 2 May 2020, and about 4,228 trains from 1 May to 3 June 2020 carried approximately 57.22 lakh migrants, with about 41 lakh more moved by road, per the Union's affidavit [1].
  • The Supreme Court took suo motu cognizance (Writ Petition (Civil) No. 6/2020) on 26 May 2020, issued interim directions on 28 May and detailed directions on 9 June 2020, including identification and transport of stranded workers within 15 days and a request that States consider withdrawing prosecutions under Section 51 of the Disaster Management Act against migrants who moved on roads [1].
  • The Economic Survey 2020-21 stated that the early, stringent lockdown flattened the curve and gave time to build health and testing capacity, and estimated that India restricted spread by 37 lakh cases and saved more than 1 lakh lives compared with expected values [2].
  • GDP contracted 23.9% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q2 of 2020-21 [2]; the NSO's provisional estimate of May 2021 put 2020-21 growth at -7.3% against 4.0% in 2019-20, and warned of revisions [3].

Why

Reasons given by those who did it

  • The Economic Survey 2020-21 states the strategy drew on research on the 1918 influenza showing that early, intense lockdowns controlled mortality and aided later recovery, and was designed for India's population density, large elderly population and 'overburdened health infrastructure' [2].
  • The Survey states that international assessments in March and April 2020 had projected 'crores of cases and several thousands of deaths' and that the lockdown provided time to ramp up health and testing infrastructure [2].

Criticism of that reasoning

  • The Supreme Court order of 9 June 2020 records that the National Human Rights Commission and several intervenors placed problems of migrant labourers before the Court and suggested measures, and the Court issued directions on transport, registration, counselling and withdrawal of prosecutions [1].

Benefits and concerns

Benefits (2)

  • Delayed and flattened the first wave, per the Government's analysis.Economic Survey 2020-21: lockdown 'pushed the peak' to September 2020; estimated 37 lakh cases averted and more than 1 lakh lives saved relative to an expected-versus-actual comparison across countries and a State stringency index [2]. This is the Survey's own counterfactual; the sources reviewed here contain no independent replication.
  • Accompanying relief reached large numbers of migrants and households.Approximately 57.22 lakh migrants moved by Shramik trains and about 41 lakh by road by 3 June 2020; free foodgrains of 5 kg per person per month for April-June 2020 under PMGKAY, per the Union's affidavit [1].

Concerns (2)

  • Abrupt displacement of migrant workers and the need for court-directed relief.The Supreme Court acted suo motu on 26 May 2020 and on 9 June 2020 directed States to identify and transport stranded workers within 15 days, set up counselling centres, and consider withdrawing Disaster Management Act prosecutions against migrants who moved on roads [1].
  • Large output loss in 2020-21.Q1 2020-21 GDP contracted 23.9% [2]; provisional full-year 2020-21 growth -7.3% (May 2021) [3]. The decline reflects the pandemic and the restrictions together; the data do not separate the two.

Evidence points

+1.0
points, mean of two scorers (scale −25 to +25)
+1 to +1
range between the two scorers' totals
Low confidence
1 criterion where scorers differ
ReachHow many people did the action materially affect?
Mean +1.5A +1B +2
Outcome evidenceDo official or independent data show the intended result (or its opposite), compared with the era baseline and peers?
Mean +0.5A 0B +1
Cost and sustainabilityIs the fiscal cost proportionate, and is the effect durable?
Mean −1.0A −1B −1
Process and rightsWas it made with debate, consultation and legal soundness, and did it respect rights and court rulings?
Mean −2.0A −2B −2
DeliveryWas it implemented as announced, on time and at scale?
Mean +2.0A +3B +1Scorers differ

Positive meanNegative meanScorer AScorer B

Scorer A. Official counterfactual claims averted cases but lacks independent replication, while migrant displacement required court directions and output fell sharply.

Scorer B. Government estimates credit the lockdown with averted cases, but abrupt migrant displacement needed court-directed relief and GDP fell sharply.

Context used when scoring

Era baseline
Before 2020 India had not imposed a nationwide lockdown; GDP growth was 4.0% in 2019-20 and the Government described public health infrastructure as stretched.
Lag before outcomes show
1 year
Shocks considered
covid-2020, delta wave 2021
Uncertainty
Low confidence. Scorer totals are +1 and +1. How uncertainty is shown.

In depth

The lockdown was declared on 25 March 2020 under the Disaster Management Act, 2005. It closed most economic activity and restricted movement, and activity was later allowed to resume gradually.

The Government, in the Economic Survey 2020-21, presented it as a strategy to slow transmission while health and testing capacity was built, and estimated lives and cases averted by comparing India with expected values for countries and States. The estimate depends on assumptions about what would have happened otherwise, and the sources reviewed do not include a separate verification.

The measure also had immediate effects on migrant workers, many of whom lost work and sought to return to home States. The Union stated in court that movement was initially restricted to contain spread, and that Shramik trains and road transport began later. The Supreme Court took the matter up on its own motion and issued directions. GDP fell sharply in 2020-21 in official provisional estimates, later subject to revision.

Because the pandemic and the lockdown overlapped, outcomes in health and in output cannot be attributed to the lockdown alone, and the choice of counterfactual drives most of the differences between assessments.

Sources

  2. Economic Survey 2020-21, Volume 1, Chapter 1 (lockdown strategy and estimates)
    Ministry of Finance, Government of IndiaOfficial data

Last reviewed .Report an error orchallenge a score.

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